The tropical Atlantic Ocean is toasty warm. So where are all the storms?

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The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a torrid start in May and June, but has since shut down. We shouldn’t let our guard down, though.

Historical chances of tropical storm activity ramp up substantially over the next six weeks as we move into the height of hurricane season. Warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures over much of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico may only add fuel to the fire.

The season thus far

In early June, three named tropical weather systems — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — had already formed in the Atlantic basin, the most on record so early in the season. But as Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach cautioned, a fast start to the season doesn’t necessarily carry forward.

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