一带一路经济学 : 交通走廊的机遇与风险

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中国在2013年提出 “一带一路”倡议,旨在改善跨大陆互联互通与合作。

对于“一带一路”这样规模庞大的项目,量化其影响是一项严峻挑战,这就是为什么世界银行集团对一带一路交通走廊的风险与机遇进行这项独立分析。在实证研究和严谨的经济模型支持下,《一带一路经济学》旨在帮助参与国选择最能满足其发展需求的投资与改革。此项研究的另一目的是为围绕“一带一路”的公开辩论提供信息,使讨论以数据和分析为基础。

实现‘一带一路’倡议的宏大目标,要求参与国进行同样宏大的改革。加强数据报告和提高透明度,尤其是围绕债务问题,实行公开透明的政府采购,坚持社会与环境的最高标准,都会有大有裨益。(西拉 帕扎巴西奥格鲁 世界银行公平增长、金融与制度副行长).

Has the time come for Indian CAT bonds?

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE. PDF VERSION HERE

Excellent management of cyclone Fani by the eastern Indian state of Odisha has become a text book example of how to manage natural catastrophes although the government is now faced with the task of post-disaster reconstruction. With low insurance penetration, the question of using capital markets as a means of risk transfer merits attention.

How Do You Save a Million People From a Cyclone? Ask a Poor State in India’ – the headline in the New York Times of 3 May 2019 was very apt.

Indeed, Odisha, a poor eastern coastal state in India, home to about 42m as per 2011 census with an average income of less than $5 a day, was battered by an extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani on 3 May 2019, but Odisha’s management of the event has been hailed as a classic text-book example of how best to manage a natural disaster.

Kazakhstan has turned into ‘competitive transit hub’, Nazarbayev tells Belt and Road forum

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

NUR-SULTAN – Kazakhstan’s First President Nursultan Nazarbayev briefed the April 25-27 Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing on the country’s infrastructure development and transport potential.

“Over the past ten years, Kazakhstan has invested about $30 billion on infrastructure development, transport and logistics assets and competence. Almost 3,000 kilometres of national railways and 12,500 kilometres of highways have been modernised or put into operation. Domestic sea and air harbours were reconstructed. As a result, the country has turned into a modern and competitive transit hub,” he said.

The Western Europe – Western China intercontinental highway now connects Europe and China through Russia and Kazakhstan, noted Nazarbayev, adding the highway was completed through cooperation between the country’s Nurly Zhol Programme and the Silk Road Economic Belt.

China’s Belt and Road hits a speed bump in Kazakhstan

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

‘Dry port’ pins its hopes on foreign investors to spur faster growth

A worker at Khorgos Gateway, which operates a container terminal on the border between Kazakhstan and China, directs a crane as it unloads steel coils from a container. (photo by Wataru Suzuki)

KHORGOS, Kazakhstan — One of the most ambitious projects in China’s Belt and Road Initiative aims to transform a vast plot of open land along China’s border with Kazakhstan into the launch point for a river of Chinese goods flowing to Europe by rail.

A depot hums with giant cranes, hoisting containers. Newly built rail lines stretch into the distance and hundreds of workers go about their jobs. The vision is taking shape. But just four years in, the project already faces slowing growth.

Big, Empty, But Full of Promise?

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

The Great Stone industrial park outside Minsk currently feels like an empty monument to political ambition, but with increased involvement from Chinese investors and Beijing’s backing it still has potential. 

Flags branded with the China Merchants Group logo flutter along wide, empty roads as we make our way from the administrative headquarters towards Great Stone industrial park’s new trade and exhibition center. The center has a floorspace of 22,000 square meters, and is populated by a security guard who watches over an exhibit detailing the park’s most noteworthy resident companies. As we tour the exhibit, the park’s press secretary explains that the center will host an international economic forum later that year. Prompted perhaps by the cavernous exhibition space, she adds, “we’re just at the beginning of our journey here.”

Some commentators look at Great Stone, located just outside of Minsk and otherwise known as the China Belarus Industrial Park, and they see a bold idea struggling to convince investors. They talk about the personal interests of Belarus’ strongman leader, President Alexander Lukashenko, and describe a project that is more about ambition and politics than serious economic opportunity. The expensive-looking exhibition center certainly has a whiff of boondoggle about it, but, as with many projects undertaken by China, “big and empty,” always holds the uncertain promise of becoming “big and full.” During my visit to Great Stone, I asked employees whether the park was underachieving. The typical response was measured, yet believably candid: “It’s not as fast as we want, but, for such a huge process, it’s progressing at a good speed.” It doesn’t make for captivating headlines, but development is often slow—success a relative concept.

Утверждена стратегия по снижению риска стихийных бедствий

ОРИГИНАЛЬНАЯ ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ ЗДЕСЬ

Кабмин утвердил стратегию по снижению риска бедствий в Узбекистане, главная цель которой — защита населения и территорий от чрезвычайных ситуаций.

Кабинет Министров 12 апреля утвердил стратегию достижения целей «Сендайской рамочной программы по снижению риска бедствий на 2015−2030 годы» и национальный план по ее реализации, сообщила Norma.uz.

Цель стратегии — повышение эффективности реформ в сфере комплексной защиты населения и территорий от бедствий и существенное сокращение к 2030 году числа погибших и пострадавших, а также прямого экономического ущерба в результате бедствий.

Asian governments encouraged to use more risk transfer by ADB

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

Disaster risks and costs are on the rise in Asia, a region where under-insurance is still the norm and spending by government’s on contingent sources of disaster risk financing relatively scarce, leading the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to call for more to be done.

Among the issues cited as requiring more focus, the use of insurance, reinsurance and alternative forms of risk transfer, in terms of protection directly for the people threatened by disasters as well as for governments and corporations, is seen as key to the ability of the Asia region to increase its resilience to natural catastrophes, severe weather and climate related risks.

“Four out of every five people affected by natural hazards live in Asia,” explained ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “Asia has led the way on disaster risk reduction efforts in recent years, but more action is needed to tackle both vulnerability and responses at the national and the community level.”

Asia faces an environment where climate change, rapid urbanisation and rising values-at-risk are resulting in increasing exposure levels.

Asian governments encouraged to use more risk transfer by ADB

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

Disaster risks and costs are on the rise in Asia, a region where under-insurance is still the norm and spending by government’s on contingent sources of disaster risk financing relatively scarce, leading the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to call for more to be done.

Among the issues cited as requiring more focus, the use of insurance, reinsurance and alternative forms of risk transfer, in terms of protection directly for the people threatened by disasters as well as for governments and corporations, is seen as key to the ability of the Asia region to increase its resilience to natural catastrophes, severe weather and climate related risks.

“Four out of every five people affected by natural hazards live in Asia,” explained ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “Asia has led the way on disaster risk reduction efforts in recent years, but more action is needed to tackle both vulnerability and responses at the national and the community level.”

Asia faces an environment where climate change, rapid urbanisation and rising values-at-risk are resulting in increasing exposure levels.

亚行研究:亚洲须优先发展抗灾能力,应对不断增长的风险

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

中国香港(2019年4月3日讯)— 亚洲开发银行(亚行)年度经济旗舰报告《2019年亚洲发展展望》表明,亚洲地区面临的灾害风险不断增加,亚洲发展中国家急需建立应对机制,在灾害发生前通过完善规划、制定政府预算并鼓励保险投入,增强应对能力。

亚行首席经济学家泽田康幸(Yasuyuki Sawada)先生表示,“每五个受自然灾害影响的人中有四个生活在亚洲。虽然近年来亚洲率先减少灾害风险,但仍需采取更多行动,从而在国家和社区层面着手解决脆弱性问题并制定应对措施。”

灾害通常更容易对贫困和边缘家庭、小企业以及太平洋岛国等小而偏远的国家造成重大影响。尽管气候变化加剧了自然灾害,快速城镇化也使风险不断增加,但自1980年以来,亚洲地区仅有8%的自然灾害获得了保险赔偿。

CAT bonds can bridge the protection gap

ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE

As China grapples with the twin issues of increasing natural hazards and low insurance penetration, the economic progress it achieves tends to be annihilated. Catastrophe bonds can be a viable solution to this problem. Asia Insurance Review spoke with two insurance-linked securities experts to discuss the feasibility of CAT bonds as a risk transfer mechanism in China.

China has always been exposed to natural disasters. Typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides and wildfires have occurred throughout Chinese history. Some of these events have been the most destructive, particularly in terms of fatalities.

In recent years the impact of these perils has grown and some of them are becoming even more frequent and severe. Exposure to risk in China is changing.