Hurricane Ida insured wind & storm surge losses seen at up to $25bn by AIR

AIR Worldwide has estimated that insurance and reinsurance industry losses to onshore property resulting from the wind and storm surge impacts of Hurricane Ida will be between $17 billion and $25 billion.

This estimate from AIR compares to CoreLogic’s industry loss range of $14 billion to $21 billion, and Karen Clark & Company’s re/insured loss estimate of close to $18 billion.

The catastrophe risk modeller’s insured loss estimate includes physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial and auto), both structures and their contents from winds, wind-borne debris, storm surge, and the impact of demand surge. But does not include hurricane precipitation-induced flood losses.

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NFIP cat bonds & reinsurance in focus as Ida’s remnants flood New York

The remnants of hurricane Ida have continued to drop torrential rain along its path north east and its slow pace and heavy downpours have now flooded parts of New York, all of which is heightening the risk posed to FEMA’s catastrophe bonds and reinsurance tower for the National Flood Insurance Program.

As we explained yesterday in our analysis of catastrophe bonds that have seen secondary market price declines in the wake of hurricane Ida’s landfall and impacts in Louisiana and the surrounding region, the FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds are among those considered potentially exposed.

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has been procuring reinsurance for its National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for a few years now, both from traditional reinsurers and the capital markets using catastrophe bonds.

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Catastrophe bonds marked down on hurricane Ida threat

A number of catastrophe bonds have been marked down in end of month secondary market pricing sheets, with some of the anticipated names suffering declines of between 25% and 35% in value.

After hurricane Ida’s devastating landfall with 150 mph winds in Louisiana on Sunday it was always anticipated that there would be a mark-to-market reaction in catastrophe bonds.

The majority of insurance-linked securities (ILS) fund managers seem relatively comfortable that cat bond losses will be largely mark-to-market from the hurricane, as long as the industry loss remains in the current estimated range of around $15 billion to as high as $25 billion.

FULL ORIGINAL PUBLICATION HERE